Fold Holdings · FY27 Valuation Anchor Internal · Confidential · Illustrative

The dead checking balance,
reimagined.

Americans leave $10–20k of petty cash idle in checking, earning nothing. Fold Max is a stored-value account that puts that cash to work — unlocking best-in-world rewards on spend the customer already does, funded by the yield Fold earns and run with no bank partner. FY27 economics, on multiples, anchored to today.

Probability-weighted value — today
$1.05B
Discounted FY27 value across four outcomes. The anchor the equity should trade toward as the model proves out.
FY27 value — base case
$1.32B
$285M revenue · $189M EBITDA · blended 3.5× / 11× multiples.
Strategic anchor today
$260M
25% of probability-weighted value. Entry into a self-funding, self-operated franchise.
01

What the petty cash does today

The target is not savings being chased for yield. It is the idle operating cash — the $10–20k Americans keep in checking to pay bills from — that earns essentially nothing where it sits. Fold Max relocates that cash into a stored-value account: the customer still spends from it and refills it as they always have, but now it works. The same $15k, side by side:

Today · in checking
$15,000 of petty cash, idle
Yield to the holder0.0–0.6%
Rewards on spend$0
Annual value to holder~$0–90
Who earns the floatthe bank
In Fold Max · stored value
$15,000 of petty cash, working
Yield Fold earns on it5.5% · $825/yr
Rewards unlocked on spend4.0% effective
Annual value to holder$600/yr
Fold's retained spread$225/yr + more

The customer gets a 4% effective return on cash that was dead — better than any checking or rewards card in market. Fold keeps a 1.5% net spread on every relocated dollar, before interchange and breakage. The money is never locked; it is stored value the customer spends and refills. Fold simply captures the float the checking account was wasting.

02

More stored value, higher rewards

Reward rate is tiered by how much petty cash the customer holds in Fold Max. The more dead checking balance they relocate, the higher the reward tier they unlock on their platform spend — a direct incentive to consolidate idle cash into Fold. The yield Fold earns on the stored value funds the reward; the spread is Fold's, and it requires no charter and no banking partner to operate.

Stored ValueFold Yield /yrReward Tier (CC)Reward to Holder /yrHolder Effective ROIFold Spread /yr
$10,000$5501.5%$00.0%$550
$15,000$8252.0%$6004.0%$225
$30,000$1,6502.5%$1,2004.0%$450
$50,000$2,7503.0%$1,8003.6%$950
$75,000$4,1254.0%$2,7003.6%$1,425
$100,000$5,5005.0%$3,6003.6%$1,900

Reward tier applies to platform spend (credit card + bill pay) up to a $10k/month combined cap. Fold spread = yield earned on stored value less rewards paid. Interchange on spend, breakage, and tier overages are additive and excluded.

03

FY27 economics & the discount to today

Stored-value balances convert to revenue at a blended net take of ~6% per year — a figure that is already a margin, not gross interchange ground down by reward payouts. With no partner taking a cut and no charter chokepoint, Fold retains the full spread, and EBITDA conversion runs 57–72%. Three FY27 adoption scenarios, valued on a blend of revenue (neobank comps ~3.4×) and EBITDA (specialty-finance 10–12×) multiples, then discounted one year at 25%:

Multiple framework

Revenue multiple (cons / base / agg)2.5× · 3.5× · 4.5×
EBITDA multiple (cons / base / agg)10× · 11× · 12×
Reconciliation weight70% Rev / 30% EBITDA
Discount to present25% · 1 year

Probability weighting

Aggressive inflection15%
Base inflection40%
Conservative inflection35%
Failure (no inflection)10%
ScenarioStored-Value AUMRevenueEBITDAFY27 ValuePV TodayProb.Weighted
Failure$50M10%$5M
Conservative$1.2B$112M$64M$388M$310M35%$109M
Base$3.75B$285M$189M$1,322M$1,058M40%$423M
Aggressive$10.8B$738M$532M$4,240M$3,392M15%$509M
Probability-weighted value, today$1,045M
At $260M, the anchor buys the franchise at 25% of its probability-weighted value and ~20% of the base case alone — before any credit for the scaling below.
04

The pool is enormous

Americans hold hundreds of billions in idle checking balances earning nothing. Fold Max does not need to win deposits from a yield war — it needs only to be the obvious home for petty cash, because no checking account or rewards card returns anything close. Growth is self-funding: the spread on relocated balances pays to acquire the next cohort. As stored value compounds toward tens of billions, the spread compounds with it.

$3.75B0.25M cust · base FY27
$0.11BFold spread / yr
$10B0.7M cust
$0.30BFold spread / yr
$20B1.3M cust
$0.60BFold spread / yr
$40B2.7M cust
$1.20BFold spread / yr
Gross yield on stored value (5.5%) Rewards returned (~2.5%) → balance is Fold's spread

At $40B of stored value: $2.2B gross yield, ~$1.0B returned to holders as best-in-world rewards, ~$1.2B retained spread — at margins a partner-dependent neobank can never reach, because Fold keeps the whole spread. Customer counts shown at $15k average stored balance.

The question is not whether $260M is fair for last year's Fold. It is whether $260M is fair entry into the one product that turns America's dead checking balances into $1B+ of annual high-margin spread — with no bank partner, and a reward no competitor can fund.